儿童手足口病的数学建模和计算机模拟

李华,刘三红,方奕乐,张兴安

Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Children

Hua Li,Sanhong Liu,Yile Fang,Xingan Zhang

表 4 2012-2016年HFMD参数估计及基本再生数

参数及其范围 来源 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 β∈[0, 50] MSS 1.078 1.0502 1.0791 0.9819 0.7256 γ1∈[0, 1] MSS 1.0000 0.9999 0.9997 0.9454 0.6643 γ2∈[0, 1] MSS 1.0000 1.0000 0.9998 0.9477 0.9944 α∈[0, 1] MSS 1.0000 1.0000 0.9590 1.0000 0.9959 ρ∈[0, 1] MSS 0.0591 0.1227 0.0879 0.1608 0.0384 γ3∈[0, 1] MSS 0.0106 0.0042 0.0087 0.0025 0.0109 E(0) MSS 4000 4000 3000 3279 3800 I(0) MSS 3300 2177 2994 3299 3799 H(0) MSS 4000 4000 3000 3300 3796 R0 Calculated 1.0778 1.0448 1.0792 1.0380 1.0919