具周期性潜伏期的SEIR传染病模型的动力学

Abstract

Abstract:

A SEIR ordinary differential epidemic model with time-periodic latent period is studied. Firstly, the model is derived by means of the distribution function of infected ages. Next, the basic reproduction ratio $\mathcal R_0$ is introduced, and it is shown that $\mathcal R_0$ is a threshold index for determining whether the epidemic will go extinction or become endemic using the theory of dissipative dynamic systems. Finally, numerical methods are carried out to validate the analytical results and further to invetigate the effects on evaluating the propagation of disease owning to the neglect of the periodicity of the incubation period.

Key words: Periodic latent period, SEIR model, Basic Reproduction ratios, Persistence

CLC Number:

O175

Shuangming Wang,Xingman Fan,Mingjun Zhang,Junrong Liang. The Dynamics of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Time-Periodic Latent Period[J].Acta mathematica scientia,Series A, 2020, 40(2): 527-539.

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The Dynamics of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Time-Periodic Latent Period

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